Orlando-based economist Hank Fishkind of Fishkind & Associates comes off a bit like Groucho Marx. He's got a dark, thick moustache and a sly smile, along with a rapid-fire manner of speaking and the wit to keep an audience engaged. But his number-crunching overviews of the Florida economy are no joke. Fishkind is the go-to economist for Florida media, government, developers and economic development officials. He was in Sarasota recently to speak about the economic outlook through 2009, a talk sponsored by Hennessy Construction Service and Sarasota/Manatee BUSINESS.

And what was his message? Fishkind believes that we're in for a soft landing in 2007, despite how much the bursting of the real estate bubble hurts right now. We'll see recovery in 2008 and strong growth in 2009. The wild card in his prediction, he warns, is the price of gas. Not only have we been forking out more dollars at the pump (although we've had some relief lately), but our utility bills have gone up and deliveries are more expensive, signs that inflation is creeping in. Since many of our visitors and second-home buyers come from states that are either in recession because of higher fuel costs, such as Michigan and Ohio, or, at the very least, are feeling the pinch, such as Illinois and Indiana, our economy will also feel the effect in fewer numbers of visitors and purchases.

As far as housing goes in our market, Fishkind says there's "terrible overbuilding in the condo market," particularly in Sarasota. "A $500,000 to $1 million condo in downtown Sarasota? What's the rationale?" he asks. The bright spots in Sarasota's market are the 2050 plan-"a seminal event," he says, although he wonders how the addition of slower growth advocate Joe Barbetta to the Sarasota County Commission will affect the composition of the commission and the projects it approves east of I-75-and the tendency of higher prices in Naples and the lack of land in Lee and Collier to push people into south county.

Commercial real estate-office and industrial, particularly-remains strong in both counties, and Fishkind sees plenty of opportunities in Manatee's commercial market. Stay away from apartments, he says; they are the riskiest segment of the market.

After Fishkind's presentation, we questioned him in more detail about the local market.

The mood among many businesspeople and residents in the region is fairly pessimistic compared to a year ago. Are you sensing that? Transition is never pleasant, and we are in transition from a period of rapid economic growth in the nation and this region to a period of more normal levels of growth; that transition is always difficult to manage. It's at these inflection points that management really counts.

Why is management more critical now? When business activity is rising rapidly, management has an easier time because the premium is on execution and servicing the flow of business. When business contracts, it's much more difficult to manage costs and market share. Motivating staff is more difficult; cash flow is difficult. This is exactly the period where companies have difficulties. The real estate markets are much more vulnerable, but all businesses have their challenges during periods of slower growth. The situation is exacerbated during this transition because we have the impacts of very high and unpredictable insurance costs and substantial increases in property taxes.

Do you see any relief from higher property insurance costs? No, I don't think prices for insurance are going to come down. They're going to continue to rise over the next two years. I do think we'll see some stabilization in the market for commercial property owners, and I do think the legislature will expand Citizen's mandate.

What about relief from higher property taxes? There is a great constituency among voters to preserve Save Our Homes and to continue to shift property tax burdens to anybody but themselves.

How will that affect commercial, investment and second-home markets? It will hurt the market. It won't destroy it, but it will be less attractive. By that, I mean less profitable, less valuable. High rates of property taxation and high levels of property insurance translate into less operating income for an operator of commercial property and therefore lower values. The same thing will apply to second homes, in that someone who would want to purchase sometime in the future will take into account the property taxes and insurance. It will change our real estate market more than slightly, but it certainly won't be a debacle. It's a bit more challenging for a mature market like yours, since there's not a lot of waterfront to go on anymore. So someone who wants waterfront will look at your waterfront and then may also look at Panama City Beach.