Leading Questions

Will the slowdown in student growth continue?

By now we've heard the news. School districts around the state, including Sarasota and Manatee, have downsized the number of students they expect to fill classrooms in 2006-07. The trend began last year and came as a surprise after years of more than 65,000 new students enrolling annually in Florida public schools. Last year fewer than 30,000 new students ended up enrolling, forcing districts to adjust their budgets; this year, the state expects the number to be about the same.

Blame skyrocketing housing and insurance costs and hurricane activity, say state school officials. And the numbers aren't expected to go up for awhile. According to the forecast at the state's Public School Education Estimating Conference this summer, the student growth rate will remain at a lower level until 2010-11, when the large number of babies born in 2003 through 2005 will begin to enroll. Even then, the numbers aren't expected to be as large as the 65,000 students who poured into Florida in 2004-05.

Is that the picture in our region?

In 2005-06 in Sarasota County, the school district overestimated by more than 1,200 students. "We projected 1,800 would be coming and only 500 to 600 showed up," says Al Weidner, Sarasota County schools budget director. By contrast, two years ago the district had about 1,200 to 1,400 new kids. This year Weidner downsized the projection to 600 new students. "We are downsizing our projections mainly because of [lack of] affordable housing," he says.

Manatee County projected enrollment growth at 520 students compared to the 1,100 to 1,300 the county has experienced the last five years. "We knew something was up when we looked at our numbers from October to February last year," says Tim McGonegal, Manatee's assistant superintendent of business services, who says the district will lose more than $2 million in state dollars due to the fewer number of students. (The county, however, anticipated the shortfall and held money in reserve.)

McGonegal and Weidner say the slowdown in growth is not all bad. "It's good for us on the building side," says Weidner, referring to the district's opportunity to catch up on lagging school construction. But will growth pick up again? McGonegal predicts that the numbers will go up again "in another year or two," once the oversupply of homes is absorbed. And, he says, people adjust. "People will get used to the home prices eventually," he says, "and we've got a lot of affordable housing coming. Twenty-five percent of every new development will have affordable housing."

Weidner, however, isn't sure the numbers will pick up so soon in Sarasota, and that's not necessarily good for the health of the county. It will be at least four years before he thinks student growth will increase. "We don't see job opportunities that will allow people to afford to live here," he says. "Most of our schools told us that parents were saying, 'We can't afford to live here,' referring to housing costs, taxes, insurance, fuel costs and renter costs. It's just common sense. I moved here in 1976 from New Jersey because it was so much cheaper here. If I were to come here today, I'd say, 'No way.'" -Susan Burns

STUNTING STUDENT GROWTH

School officials cite the lack of affordable housing as the No. 1 reason student enrollment rates are declining. But housing prices are declining, too. The latest figures from the Florida Association of Realtors reports the sale price of existing, single-family homes in Sarasota-Bradenton declined 11 percent from August 2005 to August 2006 from $347,400 to $309,700.

MIND YOUR MANNERS
Business etiquette from national restaurant consultant Judi Gallagher.

I'm confused. When I eat out with co-workers I notice some people tip 15 percent and others 20 percent. What's the standard?

Gratuity is the expression of appreciated service. While many of us still believe that 15 percent gratuity is the correct amount, I remind you that acknowledging good service deserves a cost of living increase as well. Twenty percent in the business world is now the "acceptable" rule. Mind your manners, however; always tip on the original amount before a discount is given on the check. www.judigallagher.com

MY FIRST JOB

Hey, Coach!
Chamber prez Steve Queior got his start as a teacher and wrestling coach.

Interviewed by Abby Weingarten

Steve Queior, president and CEO of the Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce, honed his leadership skills in the classroom. He taught high school English and science, and coached college wrestling. Before moving to Sarasota three years ago, Queior headed the St. Joseph County, Ind., and Greater Fort Lauderdale chambers of commerce. Recently he was named top Chamber Professional of the Year by the Florida Association of Chamber Professionals.