Leading Question

Q. Is the downtown building boom in Sarasota over?

Ali Ebrahimi, who three years ago developed The Plaza at Five Points-one of the first new condo projects downtown-isn't bullish on Sarasota anymore. After his ambitious Plaza Verdi project fell through, he told local media that the downtown condo market had gone soft and he had turned his attention to North Port to develop a shopping center.

Other developers are having second thoughts as well. No permits for condominium projects were issued in the first four months of 2006, compared to 10 in all of 2004 and five in 2005. And several projects that received approvals or were announced by developers are in limbo, including CityPointe, Wayne Morehead's project along Cocoanut Avenue; 1740 Main St. (the project was approved, but developer Chris Brown has walked away from it); and Michael Saunders' project on Orange Avenue (she has said she isn't certain of her plans). Also, Joe Hembree's 1335 Second St. was turned down by the city, and he has no plans to resubmit.

What's happening?

According to John Harshman of Harshman & Company, the slowdown was predictable. "Real estate is seldom linear," he says. "It's more of a stair-step progression than a gradual incline."

Harshman says the past two years' flurry of activity and escalating values couldn't last. "The market got used to intense activity. 1350 Main [a downtown condo] sold out in 90 minutes, and that's absurd. It's reasonable to have some calming, and it will take some time for these projects to be absorbed."

Harshman points to low unemployment and relatively low interest rates, a strong national economy and retiring baby boomers as reasons for optimism. "For every developer that leaves, four others are looking at the area," he says.

Longtime Sarasota developer Mark Kauffman concedes that the market is trickier today. "I'm cautious now. Before, you couldn't make a mistake," he says. "Just throw something up in the air and someone would buy it. Now there are a tremendous number of investment units that will hit the market, and they have to get absorbed. The cost of construction has increased, too."

Nonetheless, Kauffman is looking at developing another project downtown and says the major projects being proposed by Benderson Development at the Bank of America site at Main Street and Orange Avenue, and Isaac Group Holdings' Pineapple Square, at Main and Lemon Avenue, look encouraging.

"Downtown is healthy and viable," he insists. -Susan Burns

DOWNTOWN SARASOTA'S CONDO PERMITS

2004: 10 condo project permits issued, totaling 401 units, $144 million in value
2005: 5 condo project permits issued, totaling 466 units, $43.5 million in value
2006 (Jan.-April): No condo project permits issued

Source: City of Sarasota permitting department

CRUNCHING NUMBERS

TRAFFIC TIE-UPS
What road congestion costs you in time and fuel.

Total hours of delay annually in the U.S.: 3.7 billion
Total gallons of "wasted" fuel annually in the U.S.: 2.3 billion
Total gallons of "wasted" fuel annually in Sarasota-Bradenton: 3.4 million
Average annual delay for every person using motorized travel: 47 hours; in 1982: 16 hours
Annual delay per traveler in Sarasota-Bradenton: 19 hours; in 1982: 12 hours
Sarasota-Bradenton's national ranking in traffic delays: 52 out of 85 urban areas
National cost of congestion: $63.1 billion
Cost of congestion in Sarasota-Bradenton: $97 million
U.S. congestion costs saved by operational treatments (signal coordination, ramp metering, incident management): $5.6 billion
U.S. congestion costs saved by public transportation: $18.2 billion
Sarasota-Bradenton congestion costs saved by operational treatments: $5.8 million
Sarasota-Bradenton congestion costs saved by public transportation: $3.1 million

SOURCE: THE 2005 URBAN MOBILITY REPORT, Texas Transportation Institute. Based on 2003 data.

THE LIST
The region's largest law firms.

1 Williams, Parker, Harrison, Dietz & Getzen
(941) 366-4800, www.williamsparker.com
Attorneys: 44

2 (TIE) Abel Band, Chartered
(941) 366-6660, www.abelband.com
Attorneys: 34

(TIE) Icard, Merrill, Cullis, Timm, Furen & Ginsburg
(941) 366-8100, www.icardmerrill.com
Attorneys: 34

3 Blalock, Walters, Held & Johnson
(941) 748-0100, www.blalockwalters.com
Attorneys: 17

4 Dickinson & Gibbons
(941) 366-4680, www.dglawyers.com
Attorneys: 15

5 (TIE) Dunlap & Morgan
(941) 366-0115, www.lawyers.com/dunlap&morgan
Attorneys: 14

(TIE) McConnaughhay, Duffy, Coonrod, Pope & Weaver
(941) 342-7603, www.mcconnaughhay.com
Attorneys: 14

6 (TIE) Porges, Hamlin, Knowles, Prouty, Thompson, & Najmy
(941) 748-3770, www.phkplaw.com
Attorneys: 13

(TIE) Ruden McClosky
(941) 316-7600, www.ruden.com
Attorneys: 13

7 Kirk Pinkerton
(941) 364-2481, www.kirkpinkerton.com
Attorneys: 12

8 (TIE) Levin Tannenbaum Band & Gates
(941) 316-0111, www.levintannenbaum.com
Attorneys: 11

(TIE) Norton, Hammersley, Lopez & Skokos
(941) 954-4691, www.nhlslaw.com
Attorneys: 11

(TIE) Syprett, Meshad, Resnick, Lieb, Dumbaugh, Jones, Krotec & Westheimer
(941) 365-7171, www.smrl.com
Attorneys: 11

9 Fergeson, Skipper, Shaw, Keyser, Baron & Tirabassi
(941) 957-1900, www.fsskbt.com
Attorneys: 10

10 (TIE) Dye, Deitrich, Prather, Petruff & St. Paul
(941) 748-4411, www.dyefirm.com
Attorneys: 9

(TIE) Harrison, Henrickson & Kirkland
(941) 746-1167, www.nelsonhesse.com
Attorneys: 9

BUSINESS CALENDAR

JULY 6 Greater Sarasota Chamber partners meeting, beginning with a continental breakfast, 7:45 a.m. at the Chamber Boardroom, 1945 Fruitville Road, Sarasota. Call 955-2508 ext. 234.