The old saying goes that the only sure things in life are death and taxes. But in 2006, you can also be sure that folks in Sarasota and Manatee counties will be closely monitoring occurrences both natural and unnatural, watching to see what Mother Nature has in store and how sky-high prices for housing and gas will impact the region.

"My bet is that we will see real estate prices falling a little during 2006 in most of Florida's coastal areas," says Dr. David Denslow, an economics professor and economic analysis program director for the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. "It's going to depend a lot on what happens with interest rates."

"We can't go on getting 15-percent increases annually," concurs Dr. Frederick Strobel, Selby professor of economics at Sarasota's New College of Florida. "But there are a number of unique factors here that, while we may see some slowing, I don't think we're going to see massive price cuts."

One of those factors: continued strong demand from baby boomers, who keep flocking to Florida despite rising home prices and a couple of active hurricane seasons. "Last year, I would have thought that the hurricane season would cool off the housing market here, but it didn't," says Denslow. "There may be some driving up of insurance rates, additions to housing costs, people building tougher residences. But it won't be a big concern."

What will continue to be a major concern is how rising home prices are affecting the area's workforce, making it harder and harder for teachers, police officers and secretaries to buy a residence. "Workforce housing is a real problem," says Strobel. "One way to solve it is to get wages up so that people can afford to buy a house." But even so, expect the area's high cost of living to make it hard for some employers to fill jobs.

Local businesses will also keep an eye on high gas prices and the impact they'll have on tourism, retail and other industries. Because it will be more expensive to drive to work and heat their homes, consumers will have less money for discretionary spending on frills like restaurants and entertainment. And it will cost more for companies to transport goods and services. When you couple that with the fact that "insurance companies are doing all that they can to raise rates," according to Strobel, "there will be a higher cost of doing business, which will place a burden on the consumer."

But plenty of bright spots sparkle on the horizon. We've talked to various local industry leaders to see what they think 2006 has in store.

Larry White, executive director, Bradenton Area Convention and Visitors Bureau

"I'm always optimistic, but there are a lot of challenges," says White, like $3-plus gasoline, problems in the airline industry and high-profile storms. "We seem to be locked in to 15 to 20 or more hurricanes a year, and the Weather Channel is going to make very sure that no one forgets that," he says. "But I'm cautiously optimistic." What will keep drawing visitors to this area? "The beaches, the sunshine, the culture, the Gulf, the museums, the music-it's all still here," says White. Another plus: Many of the area's visitors come from other parts of the state, "and if any group of people understands the psychology of hurricanes, it's Floridians." What's your biggest concern for the year ahead? The airlines. "We're primarily a drive-to destination, but the winter season is so controlled by the airlines," says White. "So the survival of the airlines worries me." Does the bureau have any major plans for 2006? In light of AirTran's new nonstop service from Boston's Logan International Airport and New York's LaGuardia to Sarasota Bradenton International Airport, the Bradenton Area CVB will put extra emphasis on those regions, as well as amplify its marketing work in Germany.

Jay Brady, executive director, Gulf Coast Builders Exchange

Brady expects several factors to impact the building industry in 2006, everything from rising prices for materials to the influx of baby boomers. "I know there have already been stories about some builders using warehouse space to gather and store building materials because of an expectation of shortages later," he says. "And labor continues to be an issue because of a lack of affordable workforce housing. So I think there will probably be a little bit of a slowdown because of those factors." What can be done to address the issue of workforce housing? "We've got to figure out a way to be more efficient in using land in the face of all this demand," says Brady. "The market needs more incentive, less regulation and more density in places to make it work, to help make mass transit work. People want to drive less, but to do so they've got to be in more dense residential developments that are near jobs, shopping and mass transit routes." Are there any areas where the market is showing weakness? "From what I hear, people are trying to finish up current projects because they're not expecting as much commercial and office/industrial demand over the next six to 12 months," says Brady. That's due to factors like rising interest rates and construction costs. "But certainly there is expectation of future demands from the baby boomers, and commercial development's going to follow those rooftops," he says. What other issues are on the Builders Exchange's radar for 2006? "We're definitely concerned about the entire business climate and the overregulation of our industry," says Brady. The group is also continuing to work with local high schools on its pre-apprenticeship program to help draw qualified workers to the industry.